🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Metalist 1925 Kharkiv edge out Livyi Bereh 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat Livyi Bereh 1-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.61 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.64 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.62 / defence 1.38, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 59% | Draw 28% | Livyi Bereh 13%, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 53%, Livyi Bereh 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.84 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights