🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Karpaty share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Karpaty finished level at 2-2 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.77 xG and Karpaty 0.73 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karpaty outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.90 / defence 0.64 against Karpaty attack 0.93 / defence 0.68, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 31% | Draw 40% | Karpaty 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 20%, Karpaty 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Karpaty's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights