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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.71 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.85 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.92 / defence 1.36, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 57% | Draw 26% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 17%, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 24%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights