Lviv 0-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Lviv welcome Oleksandria to Stadion SKIF. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lviv — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lviv have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion SKIF — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have recorded 1W 8D 1L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Oleksandria's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Lviv's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lviv, 1 for Oleksandria and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Oleksandria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lviv trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 48% versus Oleksandria 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 42% | Oleksandria 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.01 xG and Oleksandria 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.805 / defence 1.162 | Oleksandria attack 0.725 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.252. Data: 41 Lviv games / 40 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 34% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 36%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Oleksandria 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lviv 50% | Oleksandria 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 34% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Lviv 1.01 / Oleksandria 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.805 / def 1.162 | Oleksandria attack 0.725 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Oleksandria xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Oleksandria kick off?
Lviv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Lviv 0 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Lviv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs Oleksandria part of?
Lviv vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 34% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lviv and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Oleksandria?
Record (2 meetings): Lviv 0W | Draws 1 | Oleksandria 1W.
What form are Lviv and Oleksandria in?
Lviv (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 1W-8D-1L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.81x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.28
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.07
1.05
Oleksandria xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Lviv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Lviv and 1.05 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Lviv have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 7W 8D 25L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria's form line: 15W 15D 10L from 40 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lviv have posted 0.70 PPG from 20 outings (3W 5D 12L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 4W 10D 6L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lviv are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.32 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 7W 8D 25L in their last 40 games (0.72 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 15W 15D 10L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.70 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Lviv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lviv and Oleksandria runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Oleksandria have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Lviv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
1
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Oleksandria?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Oleksandria have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2023, when Lviv 0-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 55%, Oleksandria 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lviv) and 45% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 40% of games; Oleksandria in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Oleksandria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Lviv's games and 60% of Oleksandria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lviv vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lviv's recent games and 45% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Lviv 0-1 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.01 xG and Oleksandria 1.05 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lviv fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Oleksandria attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 34% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 36%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 42%, Oleksandria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.