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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zorya Luhansk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy beat Zorya Luhansk 2-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.04 xG and Zorya Luhansk 0.84 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zorya Luhansk landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.94 / defence 0.65 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 39% | Draw 32% | Zorya Luhansk 29%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 27%, Zorya Luhansk 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.40 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights