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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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LNZ Cherkasy and Zorya Luhansk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy and Zorya Luhansk finished level at 1-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.30 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.05 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Zorya Luhansk attack 0.92 / defence 1.24, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 42% | Draw 28% | Zorya Luhansk 30%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 41%, Zorya Luhansk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.21 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights