🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Veres Rivne cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Veres Rivne beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-2 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.19 xG and Veres Rivne 0.78 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Veres Rivne attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 46% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 24%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Veres Rivne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 27%, Veres Rivne 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Veres Rivne's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.15 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights