LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as LNZ Cherkasy face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Shakhtar Donetsk at in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy at this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shakhtar Donetsk are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shakhtar Donetsk, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for LNZ Cherkasy.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (LNZ Cherkasy 18% | Shakhtar Donetsk 38%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 26% | Shakhtar Donetsk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.20 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.964 / defence 0.866 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.259 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.103. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 LNZ Cherkasy games / 34 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 35% | Draw 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 35%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 35% | Draw 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.20 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.964 / def 0.866 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.259 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 35% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (6 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk 4W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.96x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
35%
2.87
30%
3.30
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.40
1.20
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.20 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 19W 7D 8L from 34 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 24W 6D 4L across 34 games — 2.29 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 9W 4D 4L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 11W 5D 1L across 17 trips, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.21 scored and 0.82 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking output running into LNZ Cherkasy's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 19W 7D 8L in their last 34 games (1.88 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 24W 6D 4L in their last 34 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.82 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.24 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
4
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — LNZ Cherkasy 18% BTTS, Shakhtar Donetsk 47%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 59% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 53%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 47% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 59% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.