🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Ruh Lviv 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.09 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.02 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 37% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 33%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 29%, Ruh Lviv 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.09 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights