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Polessya cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over LNZ Cherkasy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.92 xG and Polessya 1.10 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Polessya outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Polessya attack 1.24 / defence 0.79, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 31% | Polessya 39%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 26%, Polessya 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Polessya's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.47 PPG, Polessya 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights