LNZ Cherkasy 0-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 3W 3D 4L at Cherkasy Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Kryvbas KR arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Kryvbas KR, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Kryvbas KR have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 44% versus Kryvbas KR 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 28% | Kryvbas KR 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.36 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.816 / defence 0.895 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.375 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.239. Kryvbas KR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 LNZ Cherkasy games / 36 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 34% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 41%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Kryvbas KR 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Kryvbas KR 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 34% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.36 / Kryvbas KR 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.816 / def 0.895 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.375 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Kryvbas KR xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 34% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
Record (4 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 0W | Draws 1 | Kryvbas KR 3W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.82x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (1.38x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
34%
2.94
25%
4.04
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.89
1.52
Kryvbas KR xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
7%
13.50
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.52 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 10W 11D 15L from 36 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kryvbas KR, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 11L across 36 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 7W 4D 7L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kryvbas KR's away record stands at 8W 5D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.31 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 17W 8D 11L in their last 36 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.39 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.61 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
2
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 39%, Kryvbas KR 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for LNZ Cherkasy and 33% for Kryvbas KR.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Kryvbas KR in 39%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 33% of games; Kryvbas KR in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Kryvbas KR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 44% of Kryvbas KR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 33% of Kryvbas KR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at LNZ Cherkasy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 7, as LNZ Cherkasy and Kryvbas KR drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.36 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.52 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Kryvbas KR landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.82 / defence 0.90 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.38 / defence 1.38, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 34% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 41%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 28%, Kryvbas KR 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.