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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kolos Kovalivka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy beat Kolos Kovalivka 2-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.10 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.05 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kolos Kovalivka landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 36% | Draw 30% | Kolos Kovalivka 34%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 44%, Kolos Kovalivka 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.26 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights