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Prediction vindicated as Karpaty edge out LNZ Cherkasy 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karpaty beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 xG and Karpaty 1.02 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.78 / defence 0.70 against Karpaty attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 27% | Draw 33% | Karpaty 39%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 28%, Karpaty 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Karpaty's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.27 PPG, Karpaty 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights