LNZ Cherkasy 2-1 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Karpaty make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 26 August 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Cherkasy Arena, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.
Karpaty's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Karpaty have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.77 in LNZ Cherkasy's favour (2.10 vs 1.33) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Karpaty — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Karpaty 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 33% | Karpaty 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.23 xG and Karpaty 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.019 / defence 0.929 | Karpaty attack 0.707 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.200. Data: 33 LNZ Cherkasy games / 3 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 47% | Draw 30% | Karpaty 24%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Karpaty 4.17. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Karpaty 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 47% | Draw 30% | Karpaty 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.23 / Karpaty 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.019 / def 0.929 | Karpaty attack 0.707 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Karpaty xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 26 August 2024 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty?
LNZ Cherkasy 2 - 1 Karpaty.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 47% chance of winning, Karpaty a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Karpaty (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (0.71x) against LNZ Cherkasy's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.37
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.02
0.79
Karpaty xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.79 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Karpaty sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Karpaty, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Karpaty — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Karpaty in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Karpaty
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Karpaty in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Karpaty — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
2
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty?
From 4 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Karpaty have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Karpaty 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
LNZ Cherkasy tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 33% (Karpaty) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 67% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Karpaty in 67%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 33% of games; Karpaty in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 33% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 67% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Karpaty tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Karpaty 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Karpaty 2-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.23 xG and Karpaty 0.79 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Karpaty attack 0.71 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 47% | Draw 30% | Karpaty 24%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 33%, Karpaty 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Karpaty's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Karpaty shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.