🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Kryvbas KR encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Kryvbas KR make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 3W 3D 4L at Cherkasy Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Kryvbas KR have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Kryvbas KR arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Kryvbas KR, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Kryvbas KR have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 44% versus Kryvbas KR 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 28% | Kryvbas KR 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.36 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.816 / defence 0.895 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.375 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.239. Kryvbas KR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 LNZ Cherkasy games / 36 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 34% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 41%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Kryvbas KR 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Kryvbas KR 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights