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Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.17 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.84 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Draw 31% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 0%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.