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Livyi Bereh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Veres Rivne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Livyi Bereh beat Veres Rivne 2-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.92 xG and Veres Rivne 1.25 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Livyi Bereh beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Veres Rivne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.77 / defence 1.20 against Veres Rivne attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 27% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 44%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 26%, Veres Rivne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Veres Rivne's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 1.04 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Livyi Bereh win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights