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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Livyi Bereh defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Livyi Bereh beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.96 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.30 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.82 / defence 1.28 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 28% | Ruh Lviv 44%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Livyi Bereh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 31%, Ruh Lviv 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Livyi Bereh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights