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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Livyi Bereh and Polessya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Livyi Bereh and Polessya finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.82 xG and Polessya 1.18 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.71 / defence 1.15 against Polessya attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 30% | Polessya 44%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 22%, Polessya 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did.

Polessya's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights