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Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Livyi Bereh 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Oleksandria beat Livyi Bereh 0-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.07 xG and Oleksandria 0.87 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Livyi Bereh fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Oleksandria attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 20/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 40% | Draw 31% | Oleksandria 29%, with Livyi Bereh to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 25%, Oleksandria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Oleksandria's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights