🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 15, as Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.67 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.48 / defence 1.17 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 26% | Draw 38% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 28%, Obolon'-Brovar 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 22%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 0.78 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights