Livyi Bereh 3-0 Minai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Livyi Bereh at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Minai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Minai make the trip to Stadion Avanhard to face Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Play-offs - Final. The match kicks off on Tuesday 30 July 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Livyi Bereh (all games): 0W 2D 1L across 3 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Minai's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Minai have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Minai have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Minai are 0.53 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh in recent Premier League fixtures (1.20 vs 0.67). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Minai in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Minai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Livyi Bereh 67% and Minai 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Livyi Bereh 0% | Minai 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.33 xG and Minai 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Minai attack 0.947 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.211. Data: 0 Livyi Bereh games / 30 Minai games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 37% | Draw 26% | Minai 37%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Minai 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 67% | Minai 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Jul 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 37% | Draw 26% | Minai 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Livyi Bereh 1.33 / Minai 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Minai attack 0.947 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Minai xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Minai kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Minai kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 30 July 2024 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Minai?
Livyi Bereh 3 - 0 Minai.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Minai part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Minai is a Play-offs - Final fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 37% chance of winning, Minai a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Minai will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Minai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Minai in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D. Minai (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Livyi Bereh's attack at 0.85x the league average against Minai's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Minai's attack (0.95x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Livyi Bereh Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.83
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.65
1.32
Minai xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.32 for Minai, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Livyi Bereh come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 2D 1L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Minai sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Minai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Minai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 2.00 scored and 2.67 conceded. Minai's attacking output running into Livyi Bereh's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Minai in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
Minai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Minai in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Minai have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
0
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Minai?
From 1 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 1, Minai have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Minai last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2024, when Livyi Bereh 3-0 Minai.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Minai?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Livyi Bereh, 67% for Minai — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Livyi Bereh) and 100% (Minai).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 33% of games; Minai in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Minai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Livyi Bereh's games and 67% of Minai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Minai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 100% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Minai tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Minai in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Livyi Bereh run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Minai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat Minai 3-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Play-offs - Final, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.33 xG and Minai 1.32 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Livyi Bereh beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Minai landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Minai attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 37% | Draw 26% | Minai 37%, with Livyi Bereh to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 0%, Minai 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Minai's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Minai arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Livyi Bereh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Livyi Bereh scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Minai managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.