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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Metalist 1925 Kharkiv edge out Livyi Bereh 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat Livyi Bereh 0-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.96 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.18 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Livyi Bereh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 28% | Draw 33% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 39%, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 32%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 0.94 PPG, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights