🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Karpaty edge out Livyi Bereh 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karpaty beat Livyi Bereh 2-3 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.05 xG and Karpaty 1.07 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Livyi Bereh beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karpaty outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.72 / defence 1.11 against Karpaty attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 35% | Draw 30% | Karpaty 36%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 27%, Karpaty 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Karpaty's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights