Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Kharkiv (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Livyi Bereh face FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv meet at Arena Livyi Bereg in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Livyi Bereh's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Livyi Bereg, Livyi Bereh have gone 2W 3D 1L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Livyi Bereg.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Kharkiv arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
FC Kharkiv hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with FC Kharkiv winning.
It is worth noting that FC Kharkiv have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Livyi Bereh half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 46% versus FC Kharkiv 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 18% | FC Kharkiv 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.86 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.703 / defence 1.001 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.279 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.116. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Kharkiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Livyi Bereh games / 39 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 19% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 47%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 5.26 | Draw 2.94 | FC Kharkiv 2.13. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 33% | FC Kharkiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Arena Livyi Bereg • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 19% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.86 / FC Kharkiv 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.703 / def 1.001 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.279 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC Kharkiv xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Arena Livyi Bereg.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Livyi Bereg.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 19% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 47% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv?
Record (4 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 3W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Livyi Bereh's attack at 0.70x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (1.28x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
19%
5.27
34%
2.90
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.29
1.43
FC Kharkiv xG
5.27
19%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
5%
22.02
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.5 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.43 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Livyi Bereh's recent record stands at 3W 6D 2L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 8W 1D 2L across 11 games — 2.27 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Livyi Bereh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Livyi Bereh have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 4W 0D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.82 scored and 0.73 conceded. FC Kharkiv's attacking output running into Livyi Bereh's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; FC Kharkiv in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 6D 2L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 8W 1D 2L in their last 11 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Kharkiv have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
1
Draws
3
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv?
From 4 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when FC Kharkiv 2-1 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Livyi Bereh 40%, FC Kharkiv 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Livyi Bereh) and 80% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 40%; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 60% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 80% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.