Livyi Bereh 0-3 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Livyi Bereh plays host to Livyi Bereh versus Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Livyi Bereh (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 games at Stadion Livyi Bereh this term (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo Kyiv have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Dynamo Kyiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dynamo Kyiv's form when playing away from home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.40 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh in recent Premier League fixtures (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Livyi Bereh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 27% versus Dynamo Kyiv 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Livyi Bereh 27% | Dynamo Kyiv 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.59 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.586 / defence 1.089 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.341 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.144. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.586 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Livyi Bereh games / 36 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 12% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 63%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 8.33 | Draw 4.00 | Dynamo Kyiv 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 12% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 37% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.59 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.586 / def 1.089 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.341 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (63%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Dynamo Kyiv xG
37%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Livyi Bereh 0 - 3 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 12% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 63% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.59. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (1.34x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
12%
8.38
25%
4.01
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.6%
Away win
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.26
1.67
Dynamo Kyiv xG
8.38
12%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
56%
1.80
Win to Nil
2%
44.54
35%
2.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 17.5 | 14.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.67 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Livyi Bereh come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 2D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.55 PPG from 11 outings (9W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.55 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Livyi Bereh's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.40 points per game from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.18 scored and 0.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 9W 1D 1L in their last 11 (2.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.20 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Livyi Bereh or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
2
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Dynamo Kyiv 2-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Livyi Bereh) and 60% (Dynamo Kyiv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Livyi Bereh) and 60% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 60% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Livyi Bereh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Livyi Bereh 0-3 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.59 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.67 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.59 / defence 1.09 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.34 / defence 0.82, drawn from 7/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 12% | Draw 25% | Dynamo Kyiv 63%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 27%, Dynamo Kyiv 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.