Livyi Bereh 1-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Chornomorets travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on Livyi Bereh. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 August 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Livyi Bereh — All Games: 1W 2D 4L from 7 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.71 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Livyi Bereh's home record at Stadion Livyi Bereh: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Chornomorets have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Livyi Bereh at 0.71 PPG versus Chornomorets's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 29% | Chornomorets 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 29% | Chornomorets 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.78 xG and Chornomorets 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.607 / defence 1.183 | Chornomorets attack 0.815 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.224. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.607 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Livyi Bereh games / 33 Chornomorets games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 24% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 45%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Chornomorets 2.22. Chornomorets hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chornomorets are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 40% | Chornomorets 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 24% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.78 / Chornomorets 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.607 / def 1.183 | Chornomorets attack 0.815 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Chornomorets xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 26 August 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets?
Livyi Bereh 1 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 24% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Livyi Bereh's attack at 0.61x the league average against Chornomorets's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
24%
4.09
30%
3.30
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
1.96
1.18
Chornomorets xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
8%
13.30
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 16.6 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.18 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Livyi Bereh have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 1W 2D 4L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chornomorets's form line: 2W 0D 5L from 7 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Livyi Bereh on 0.71 PPG, Chornomorets on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Livyi Bereh have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Livyi Bereh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.57 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Chornomorets in 0%.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
Chornomorets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Chornomorets away?
Livyi Bereh's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.00 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
0
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 2, Chornomorets have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Chornomorets 0-1 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Livyi Bereh 0% BTTS, Chornomorets 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Livyi Bereh) and 33% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 67% of games; Chornomorets in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 0% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 33% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Livyi Bereh defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Livyi Bereh beat Chornomorets 1-0 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.78 xG and Chornomorets 1.18 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.61 / defence 1.18 against Chornomorets attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 24% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 45%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Livyi Bereh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 29%, Chornomorets 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 14%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Chornomorets's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 0.71 PPG, Chornomorets 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Livyi Bereh win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.