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Kudrivka cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SK Poltava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka beat SK Poltava 3-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.56 xG and SK Poltava 1.04 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kudrivka beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.15 / defence 1.13 against SK Poltava attack 0.81 / defence 1.25, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 50% | Draw 25% | SK Poltava 25%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 100%, SK Poltava 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kudrivka 1.50 PPG, SK Poltava 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kudrivka win broke the near-deadlock. Kudrivka scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. SK Poltava shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.