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Kudrivka cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Oleksandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka beat Oleksandria 3-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.90 xG and Oleksandria 1.17 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kudrivka beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Oleksandria attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 27% | Draw 32% | Oleksandria 41%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Kudrivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 50%, Oleksandria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Kudrivka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kudrivka scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Oleksandria shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.