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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kudrivka and Karpaty share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kudrivka and Karpaty finished level at 2-2 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.50 xG and Karpaty 1.41 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.28 / defence 1.10 against Karpaty attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 40% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 36%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 80%, Karpaty 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kudrivka's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Karpaty's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kudrivka arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kudrivka shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karpaty scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights