Kudrivka 0-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kudrivka at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Avangard to take on Kudrivka. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kudrivka have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kudrivka have posted 3W 4D 3L at Avangard — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kudrivka 1.40 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kudrivka, 1 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 54% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kudrivka 46% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.66 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.228 / defence 0.925 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.028 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.074. Data: 33 Kudrivka games / 33 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 50% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 21%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.76. Kudrivka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kudrivka as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kudrivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Kudrivka 50% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Avangard • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 50% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Kudrivka 1.66 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.228 / def 0.925 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.028 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Kudrivka (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Avangard.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Kudrivka 0 - 3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Avangard.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 50% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kudrivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (2 meetings): Kudrivka 1W | Draws 0 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1W.
What form are Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kudrivka's attack rating (1.23) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kudrivka Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.45
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.68
1.02
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
4%
24.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.02 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kudrivka's recent record stands at 7W 11D 15L from 33 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 15L across 33 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kudrivka on 0.97 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kudrivka have managed 5W 5D 5L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kudrivka are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.18 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Early Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 7W 11D 15L in their last 33 games (0.97 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 9W 9D 15L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Kudrivka's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 1.33 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kudrivka's record when hosting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Kudrivka
0
Draws
2
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 3 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 1, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Kudrivka 0-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kudrivka 60%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kudrivka) and 53% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Kudrivka keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kudrivka have failed to score in 27% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Kudrivka's recent matches and 40% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kudrivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Kudrivka's recent games and 53% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kudrivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Epitsentr Dunayivtsi run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kudrivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Kudrivka 0-3 at Avangard, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.66 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.02 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kudrivka fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.23 / defence 0.93 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 50% | Draw 29% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 21%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 46%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kudrivka 0.97 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win broke the near-deadlock. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.