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Prediction vindicated as Kudrivka edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kudrivka beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.48 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.96 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.25 / defence 1.15 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.66 / defence 0.97, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 49% | Draw 26% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 57%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kudrivka's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kudrivka arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights