Kryvbas KR 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Stadion Hirnyk to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Kryvbas KR (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Hirnyk this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Kolos Kovalivka's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kryvbas KR lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Kolos Kovalivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 42% versus Kolos Kovalivka 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 44% | Kolos Kovalivka 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.40 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.296 / defence 1.020 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.327 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.023. Kryvbas KR carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kolos Kovalivka have an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Kryvbas KR games / 57 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 36% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 36%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kryvbas KR 40% | Kolos Kovalivka 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 36% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.40 / Kolos Kovalivka 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.296 / def 1.020 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.327 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Kolos Kovalivka xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 36% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (5 meetings): Kryvbas KR 3W | Draws 1 | Kolos Kovalivka 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.30) and Kolos Kovalivka's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (1.33x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.58
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.78
1.38
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.38 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 29W 13D 15L from 57 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 13W 22D 22L across 57 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kolos Kovalivka heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 15W 6D 7L from 28 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 9W 8D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.79 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Kolos Kovalivka in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 29W 13D 15L in their last 57 games (1.75 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 13W 22D 22L in their last 57 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.82 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 0-3 on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
3
Draws
3
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 9 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 3, Kolos Kovalivka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Kryvbas KR 2-2 Kolos Kovalivka.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 43%, Kolos Kovalivka 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kryvbas KR) and 29% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka in 39%; Kolos Kovalivka in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 36% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 29% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kolos Kovalivka defy the odds to beat Kryvbas KR 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Kryvbas KR 0-1 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.40 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.38 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kryvbas KR fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.30 / defence 1.02 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.33 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 36% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 36%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Kolos Kovalivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 44%, Kolos Kovalivka 19%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Kolos Kovalivka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.