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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Girnyk to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Kryvbas KR stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Kryvbas KR have posted 6W 3D 1L at Girnyk — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Kryvbas KR are significantly better at Girnyk than their overall form suggests.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kryvbas KR 1.20 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kryvbas KR, 0 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 9.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 5–4 with Kryvbas KR winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 57% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 57% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 2.03 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.290 / defence 0.976 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.769 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.201. Kryvbas KR carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Kryvbas KR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Kryvbas KR games / 20 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 63% | Draw 21% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 16%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Kryvbas KR (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kryvbas KR 60% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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