🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Polessya cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kolos Kovalivka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.94 xG and Polessya 1.22 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Polessya attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 31% | Polessya 42%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 26%, Polessya 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Polessya's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.33 PPG, Polessya 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights