Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Polessya travel to Kolos Stadium to take on Kolos Kovalivka. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka's home record at Kolos Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kolos Kovalivka are significantly better at Kolos Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Polessya's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Kolos Kovalivka's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kolos Kovalivka, 1 for Polessya and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Kolos Kovalivka winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Polessya in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 44% versus Polessya 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 26% | Polessya 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.94 xG and Polessya 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.901 / defence 0.842 | Polessya attack 1.166 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.243. Data: 46 Kolos Kovalivka games / 46 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 31% | Polessya 42%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Polessya 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 50% | Polessya 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Kolos Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 31% | Polessya 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.94 / Polessya 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.901 / def 0.842 | Polessya attack 1.166 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Polessya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Polessya xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Kolos Stadium.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 2 Polessya.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Kolos Stadium.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 28% chance of winning, Polessya a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya?
Record (5 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 1W | Draws 3 | Polessya 1W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Polessya (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.90) and Polessya's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
28%
3.62
31%
3.27
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.16
1.22
Polessya xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.1 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.22 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kolos Kovalivka's recent record stands at 14W 19D 13L from 46 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 10L across 46 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kolos Kovalivka on 1.33 PPG, Polessya on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kolos Kovalivka have managed 5W 11D 6L from 22 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Polessya's away record stands at 12W 4D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.39 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Polessya in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 14W 19D 13L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Polessya have gone 21W 15D 10L in their last 46 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.18 PPG; Polessya away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Polessya in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Kolos Kovalivka
3
Draws
2
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 1, Polessya have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 46%, Polessya 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Kolos Kovalivka and 41% for Polessya.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Polessya in 46%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 46% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 41% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Polessya in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kolos Kovalivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.94 xG and Polessya 1.22 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Polessya attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 31% | Polessya 42%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 26%, Polessya 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.33 PPG, Polessya 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.