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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 26, as Kolos Kovalivka and Polessya drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.81 xG and Polessya 1.04 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.68 / defence 1.00 against Polessya attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 32% | Polessya 40%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 20%, Polessya 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Polessya's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights