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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kolos Kovalivka and Karpaty share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kolos Kovalivka and Karpaty finished level at 1-1 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.27 xG and Karpaty 1.10 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Karpaty attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 40% | Draw 28% | Karpaty 32%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 25%, Karpaty 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Karpaty's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 PPG, Karpaty 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights