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Prediction vindicated as Kolos Kovalivka edge out Karpaty 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kolos Kovalivka beat Karpaty 2-1 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.01 xG and Karpaty 1.01 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.67 / defence 0.91 against Karpaty attack 1.08 / defence 1.30, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 34% | Draw 32% | Karpaty 34%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 21%, Karpaty 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Karpaty's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Kolos Kovalivka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights