Kolos Kovalivka 3-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Kolos Kovalivka take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Kolos Kovalivka welcome Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to Kolos Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kolos Kovalivka — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kolos Kovalivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Kolos Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kolos Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kolos Kovalivka at 1.10 PPG versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kolos Kovalivka, 1 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–4 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kolos Kovalivka in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 39% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kolos Kovalivka 31% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.96 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.717 / defence 0.964 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.076 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.062. Kolos Kovalivka's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Kolos Kovalivka games / 37 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 37% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 35%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 10% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kolos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 37% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.96 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.717 / def 0.964 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.076 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
45%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Kolos Stadium.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Kolos Kovalivka 3 - 1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Kolos Stadium.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 28% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (2 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 1W | Draws 0 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kolos Kovalivka's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.58
37%
2.71
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.06
1.10
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
3.58
28%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.0 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.10 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kolos Kovalivka come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 12D 10L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 1.11 PPG from 36 outings (10W 10D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kolos Kovalivka on 1.50 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kolos Kovalivka's home form reads 6W 7D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken 1.12 points per game from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Early Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.47 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
0
Draws
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 3 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Kolos Kovalivka 3-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kolos Kovalivka 29% BTTS, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (Kolos Kovalivka) and 59% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 47% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 35% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 59% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kolos Kovalivka cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-1 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.96 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.10 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.72 / defence 0.96 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 28% | Draw 37% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Kolos Kovalivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 31%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.50 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.