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Zorya Luhansk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karpaty.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Karpaty 1-3 at Stadion Ukraina, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.84 xG and Zorya Luhansk 0.81 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Karpaty fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Zorya Luhansk outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against Zorya Luhansk attack 0.95 / defence 1.19, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 60% | Draw 25% | Zorya Luhansk 15%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Zorya Luhansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 55%, Zorya Luhansk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karpaty 1.59 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Karpaty (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights