Karpaty vs Veres Rivne – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Karpaty's attack at 0.95x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.96x) against Karpaty's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
36%
2.74
35%
2.86
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.06
0.95
Veres Rivne xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Karpaty and 0.95 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.