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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karpaty and Shakhtar Donetsk share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Karpaty and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 3-3 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 0.88 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.29 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Karpaty beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.05 / defence 1.13 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.22 / defence 0.80, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 25% | Draw 29% | Shakhtar Donetsk 46%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 55%, Shakhtar Donetsk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights