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Stalemate at Karpaty's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Karpaty and Ruh Lviv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.33 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.60 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Karpaty fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ruh Lviv landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.22 / defence 1.36 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 31% | Draw 26% | Ruh Lviv 43%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 54%, Ruh Lviv 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karpaty 1.46 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karpaty (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights