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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karpaty cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ruh Lviv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karpaty beat Ruh Lviv 3-1 at Stadion Ukraina, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.14 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.69 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Karpaty beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.18 / defence 0.77 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 0.85, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 46% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 22%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 46%, Ruh Lviv 21%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karpaty 1.50 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights