🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Karpaty run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karpaty beat Obolon'-Brovar 4-0 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.08 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.17 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Karpaty beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Obolon'-Brovar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.90 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 33% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 38%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Karpaty win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 51%, Obolon'-Brovar 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karpaty 1.39 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. Karpaty (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights