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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Metalist 1925 Kharkiv edge out Karpaty 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat Karpaty 1-2 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.02 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.23 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 31% | Draw 29% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 41%, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 47%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 13%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karpaty 1.40 PPG, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights