🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Karpaty defy the odds to beat Kryvbas KR 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karpaty beat Kryvbas KR 1-0 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.68 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.71 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kryvbas KR landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.07 / defence 1.22 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.07 / defence 1.38, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 38% | Draw 23% | Kryvbas KR 39%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Karpaty win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 51%, Kryvbas KR 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karpaty 1.49 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights