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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Epitsentr Dunayivtsi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Karpaty.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Karpaty 1-3 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.54 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.05 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.24 / defence 1.21 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.67 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 48% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 25%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 44%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.44. Form was overturned, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights