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Shock result as Ruh Lviv defy the odds to beat Inhulets 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ruh Lviv beat Inhulets 0-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.94 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.86 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Inhulets fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 18/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inhulets 36% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 31%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ruh Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 44%, Ruh Lviv 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inhulets's trading profile (18 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (18 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights